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Einsatz von Vorerfahrung in der statistischen Versuchsplanung und Bauteilabsicherung

Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht das Potenzial von historischen Versuchsdaten zur Reduzierung des Prüfaufwands bei der Erprobung und betriebsfesten Auslegung mechanischer Bauteile. Stand heute ignorieren die meisten Freigabeprüfungen, dass seit Jahrzehnten für die jeweilige Vorgängergeneration des Bauteils bereits eine ähnliche Prüfung erfolgreich durchgeführt wurde. Wir stellen einen grundlegenden Prozess vor, bei dem historische Daten gezielt berücksichtigt und eingebracht werden:

Mithilfe statistischer Verfahren wie Bayes'scher Statistik und Metaanalysen werden heterogene Datensätze in ein einheitliches Modell überführt. So können etwa Daten aus Versuchen bis zum Bruch, Success Runs, Berechnungen oder Feldbeobachtungen zuerst einheitlich in Betaverteilungen…

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Description

Die Folge sind stark reduzierte Prüfaufwände für z.B. anstehende Success Runs oder die Möglichkeit, präzisere bzw. signifikantere Aussagen über die Bauteillebensdauer zu treffen. Die nun effizienter erhobenen Versuchsdaten können ihrerseits erneut in die Vorwissensdatenbank einfließen, so dass das Vorwissen für darauffolgende Auswertung noch weiter anwächst.

Wir illustrieren den Ansatz anhand einer Studie und zeigen, dass ein systematischer Umgang mit historischen Daten einen wesentlichen Beitrag zur Effizienzsteigerung in der Produktentwicklung leisten kann.

Reference: BF-2025-592

Title: Einsatz von Vorerfahrung in der statistischen Versuchsplanung und Bauteilabsicherung
Author(s): S. Feth, J. Fiedler, M. Burger
DOI: 10.48447/BF-2025-592
Event: Strukturfestigkeit und Produktlebenszyklus – Vom Design bis zur Kreislaufwirtschaft – Tagung 2025
Year of publication: 2025
Publication type: conference paper (PDF)
Language: German
Keywords: Versuchsplanung,Vorwissen,Bayes'sche Statistik

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Author(s): M. Oberreiter, M. Stoschka, F. Grün

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Schichtbasierte Schwingfestigkeitsbewertung von Gussbauteilen

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Author(s): F. Ellmer

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Multiaxiale Lebensdaueranalyse auf Basis komplexer Invarianten im Vergleich zu Ansätzen mit kritischer Schnittebene

Publication type: conference paper (PDF)

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German

€25.00

Online only New

Author(s): A. Grundler, J. Mischko, T. Bublat, W. Haydn

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1

Qualitative Bewertung von Zuverlässigkeitsaussagen in der Produktentwicklung und -absicherung

Publication type: conference paper (PDF)

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1

German

€25.00

Online only New

Editor(s): M. Decker

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1

51. Tagung des Arbeitskreises Betriebsfestigkeit

Publication type: conference proceedings (PDF)

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1

German

€90.00

Online only New

Author(s): F. C. Günther, M. Kotouc, R. Schmidt

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Bayessches Lernen: Statistische Modellierung zur Abschätzung von Lebensdauer und Zuverlässigkeit

Publication type: conference paper (PDF)

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1

German

€25.00

Online only New

Author(s): S. Bucher, A.-K. Kohlhepp, U. Zäumer, B. Schuller

E-ANTRIEBS VALIDIERUNG: WIE PRÜFLINGSEIGENSCHAFTEN ZUKÜNFTIG BEI DER VALIDIERUNG DER BETRIEBSFESTIGKEIT GEZIELT EINGESETZT WERDEN KÖNNEN.

Publication type: conference paper (PDF)

German

€25.00

Online only New

Author(s): C. Biedinger, M. Burger

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Markt- und nutzungsabhängige Auslegung durch Betrachtung von Kundenprofilen und Geodaten

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1

German

€25.00

Online only New

Author(s): J. T. Sattler, S. Schoenfeld

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Ein Fuzzy-Ansatz zur Berücksichtigung von Unschärfen in der Gesamtfahrzeugsimulation

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1

German

€25.00

Online only New

Author(s): C. Jia, D. Baiz, H. Mauch, A. Esderts

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